Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Burnley and Aston Villa meet at Turf Moor on Sunday, 10 May 2026 in a Premier League fixture. The Polymarket contract is pricing a Burnley victory at 32 per cent, implying roughly 2.1:1 odds against the home side. Settlement occurs at 13:00 UTC on the scheduled match date; USDC on Polygon funds the conditional tokens, with YES resolving on a Burnley win and NO on any other outcome (draw or Villa victory).

Historically, Burnley's home record against top-half sides has been mixed. In the 2024–25 season, Burnley secured promotion back to the Premier League after a Championship campaign, whilst Aston Villa consolidated a top-four finish. Villa's away form has typically been stronger than their home form in recent seasons, yet Burnley's Turf Moor advantage—where they have won roughly 45 per cent of matches in their last two top-flight campaigns—suggests the 32 per cent probability may underweight home-ground effects relative to squad quality differentials.

Traders should monitor team news releases in the week before the match: injury confirmations for key players, particularly Villa's attacking options and Burnley's defensive personnel, will shift the implied probability. Fixture congestion in early May often affects squad rotation decisions. Recent form in April will also matter; a run of wins for either side typically compresses the gap between market odds and underlying win probability. Official Premier League team sheets release roughly 90 minutes before kick-off, after which conditional token prices typically tighten.

Methodology

This page reviews Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.