Market statistics
- Total volume
- $833K
- 24h volume
- $833K
- Liquidity
- $4.7M
- Open interest
- $232K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Available prediction outcomes (62)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Vici Gaming and Virtus.pro in the DreamLeague Group A, initially scheduled for May 14 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Vici Gaming" if Vici Gaming win the match against Virtus.pro. This market will resolve to "Virtus.pro" if Virtus.pro win the match against Vici Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to
Wikipedia Context
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Dota 2Dota 2 is a 2013 multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) video game by Valve. The game is a sequel to Defense of the Ancients (DotA), a community-created mod for Blizzard Entertainment's Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos. Dota 2 is played in matches between two teams of five players, with each team occupying and defending their own separate base on the map. Each o
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Don VicicDonald Joseph Vicic is an American former professional football player who played for the BC Lions. He won the Grey Cup with them in 1964. He played college football at Ohio State University. He was later an investment advisor and founded Brown & Vicic Limited. He is currently a vice-president and consultant to RBC Dominion Securities.
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DotarizineDotarizine is a drug used in the treatment of migraine, which acts as a calcium channel blocker, and also as an antagonist at the 5HT2A receptor, and to a lesser extent at the 5HT1A and 5HT2C receptors. The anti-migraine action is thought to be due to its action as a vasodilator, but it also has some anxiolytic effects and blocks amnesia produced by electroc
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DoravirineDoravirine, sold under the brand name Pifeltro, is a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor medication developed by Merck & Co. for use in the treatment of HIV/AIDS.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2earth. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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