Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC København O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC København O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Lyngby BK O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Lyngby BK O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 79% |
| FC København O/U 2.5 | 72% |
| FC København 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 63% |
| Lyngby BK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 63% |
| Lyngby BK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 63% |
| Lyngby BK O/U 2.5 | 62% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| FC København 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FC København 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Lyngby BK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Lyngby BK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| FC København (-1.5) | 19% |
| FC København (-2.5) | 5% |
| Lyngby BK (-1.5) | 3% |
| Lyngby BK (-2.5) | 1% |
| FC København 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
Market context
FC København vs Lyngby BK is scheduled for the Denmark Superliga on 26 July at 10:00 AM ET, and Polymarket is pricing the **More Markets** contract at **19% YES** on the Polygon chain, settled in USDC via conditional tokens. That level implies traders see a low but non-trivial chance that one of the contract’s ancillary outcomes resolves in the affirmative, rather than pricing the match itself in the abstract.
For context, recent head-to-head evidence points towards FC København having the stronger baseline. FC København beat Lyngby 2-0 in the DBU Pokalen round of 32 on 24 September 2025, which is a useful comparison point for how the teams have matched up in a competitive setting.[2] A separate highlight package also refers to a 2-1 FC København win that left them top of the Superliga, reinforcing the general pattern that FCK have tended to control this fixture.[3] For a Polymarket user, that matters because “more markets” contracts often react to game-state assumptions and line-up expectations rather than only final score probability.
The main catalysts before settlement are team news, confirmed kick-off details, and any late schedule or line-up announcements that affect related market branches. The fixture has been listed by match trackers with kickoff timing and venue details, but those are not substitutes for official club or league confirmations when a contract depends on broader settlement conditions.[1] In practice, traders watching a USDC market on Polygon will usually look for whether the exchange of conditional tokens is still reflecting pre-match uncertainty, or whether new information has already been pushed into price through liquidity shifts.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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