Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 39.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 45.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs Black Phoenix (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% |
| Map 2 Winner | 50% |
| Match Winner | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 44% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs Black Phoenix (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-6.5) vs Black Phoenix (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-9.5) vs Black Phoenix (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map Handicap: Black Phoenix (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-3.5) vs Walczaki (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 51.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-6.5) vs Black Phoenix (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs Black Phoenix (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-3.5) vs Walczaki (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-9.5) vs Walczaki (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Black Phoenix (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 90% YES probability for Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs ex-RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 4 match between Walczaki and ex-RUSTEC in the CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 7 at 7:00AM ET. This market will reso…
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs ex-RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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