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Counter-Strike: STATE vs Fortress (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group A

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Counter-Strike: STATE vs Fortress (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group A" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Map 1 Winner 100% Map 2 Winner 100% Match Winner 100% Map Handicap: STA (-1.5) vs Fortress (+1.5) 100% Volume: $96K Liquidity: $3.3M Closes: 25 Jul 2026
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Counter-Strike: STATE vs Fortress (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group A

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
Map 2 Winner100%
Match Winner100%
Map Handicap: STA (-1.5) vs Fortress (+1.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: STATE (-3.5) vs Fortress (+3.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: STATE (-3.5) vs Fortress (+3.5)100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: STATE (-6.5) vs Fortress (+6.5)100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: STATE (-3.5) vs Fortress (+3.5)51%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.551%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.51%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: STATE (-9.5) vs Fortress (+9.5)1%
O/U 2.5 Games0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: STATE (-6.5) vs Fortress (+6.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: STATE (-9.5) vs Fortress (+9.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: STATE (-12.5) vs Fortress (+12.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50%

Market context

Counter-Strike: STATE vs Fortress (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group A — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between STATE and Fortress in the Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group A, initially scheduled for July 25 at 4:00AM ET. This market w…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Oliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto ReporterandEmma RobertsEmma RobertsFinancial Journalist

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