Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs lower bracket match between 3DMAX and Alliance represents a best-of-three Counter-Strike encounter scheduled for 28 May at 06:00 ET. The current Polymarket pricing reflects 55% implied probability for 3DMAX victory, with conditional tokens settling on Polygon and USDC collateral. This valuation places Alliance as a modest underdog despite competing in a regional circuit where roster stability and recent form carry measurable weight.

3DMAX enters as the favoured side based on recent competitive trajectory. The squad has demonstrated consistency across Stake Ranked iterations, whilst Alliance has experienced roster churn that typically correlates with reduced map pool cohesion and anti-strat preparation. Historical lower bracket matchups in similar regional tournaments show that teams with established core lineups convert approximately 62–68% of fixtures against opponents mid-roster transition, which contextualises the current 55% pricing as conservative relative to structural advantages.

Traders should monitor two concrete catalysts before settlement. First, official confirmation of the 06:00 ET start time remains critical—scheduling delays beyond the seven-day window trigger automatic 50-50 resolution regardless of eventual outcome. Second, any last-minute roster changes or stand-in announcements, typically disclosed 24–48 hours pre-match on team social channels or HLTV, would materially shift conditional token valuations. The Stake Ranked circuit publishes match schedules with limited advance notice, so fixture confirmation closer to the date may create repricing opportunities for early position holders.

Methodology

We track Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.