Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Liaoning Tieren FC face Qingdao Hainiu FC in the Chinese Super League, and Polymarket is pricing this contract at 100% YES, meaning the conditional tokens tied to a positive settlement are effectively trading at full certainty on Polygon in USDC terms. For users reading the market mechanically, that leaves no meaningful spread for new information unless the contract wording or match status changes before the 11:00 UTC settlement window closes.

The historical frame points the same way: Qingdao Hainiu have been the stronger side in the head-to-head record, while recent comparable meetings have not produced much scoring volatility. A 2025 Chinese FA Cup tie between these clubs finished 0-0, and public stat sites also note that Liaoning Tieren have gone through spells without a win and without a clean sheet, which helps explain why market participants have not treated this fixture as a live upset spot. On-chain, that matters because the contract resolves on the stated event conditions, not on broader team reputation.

The main catalysts to watch are simple: whether the fixture actually goes ahead on schedule, whether there is any last-minute change to venue or kick-off time, and whether the league or club channels confirm the match list before settlement. Recent live listings from SofaScore and similar football trackers show the game set for 20 May 2026 in Shenyang, which is the key dependency for resolution. If the match is postponed, abandoned, or reclassified, the market outcome follows the contract rules rather than the scoreboard.

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Methodology

We track Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.