Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Henan FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Henan FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Henan FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Henan FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Henan FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Henan FC (-1.5) | 99% |
| Henan FC (-2.5) | 99% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| Henan FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 77% |
| Henan FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Henan FC and Qingdao Hainiu FC face off in a Chinese Super League fixture today at 7:35 AM ET, with the settlement window closing precisely at the match’s 11:35 UTC start time. On Polymarket, this “More Markets” contract trades at 99% YES, implying near-certainty that additional betting options will be offered for this game. The price reflects the platform’s standard on-chain mechanics: traders use USDC on Polygon to buy conditional tokens, locking exposure until the oracle resolves the outcome post-match.
Historically, Chinese Super League matches involving mid-table teams like Henan (6-3-8) and Qingdao Hainiu (6-3-8) consistently trigger expanded markets, especially when both sides show comparable form. Past CSL fixtures with similar lineups and odds structures—such as the Henan vs. Shanghai Port game in May 2025—also saw 98–100% YES pricing on “More Markets” contracts, confirming that bookmakers routinely add props like total goals, Asian lines, and player stats when competitive balance exists [2].
Traders should monitor the official lineups released 60 minutes before kickoff and any late injury updates, as these directly determine market depth. ESPN’s live match page confirms the current spread and total goals odds, which often signal whether exotic props will be added [2]. No major announcements are pending beyond standard pre-match disclosures, and the 11:35 UTC settlement time ensures resolution aligns with the final whistle, leaving no ambiguity for the oracle.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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