Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 99% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 99% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 99% |
| Oregon State O/U 23.5 | 97% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 97% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 97% |
| Spread -1.5 | 96% |
| Spread -2.5 | 95% |
| O/U 35.5 | 95% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 95% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 95% |
| Spread -3.5 | 94% |
| Spread -4.5 | 94% |
| Spread -5.5 | 94% |
| Spread -6.5 | 94% |
| Spread -7.5 | 92% |
| Spread -9.5 | 90% |
| Spread -10.5 | 89% |
| O/U 41.5 | 89% |
| Spread -11.5 | 89% |
| Spread -13.5 | 86% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 84% |
| Spread -14.5 | 83% |
| O/U 37.5 | 82% |
| Spread -16.5 | 81% |
| O/U 39.5 | 81% |
| Spread -12.5 | 81% |
| Spread -17.5 | 79% |
| O/U 43.5 | 79% |
| O/U 47.5 | 78% |
| O/U 45.5 | 76% |
| Spread -20.5 | 74% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 73% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 72% |
| O/U 49.5 | 71% |
| Spread -15.5 | 71% |
| Spread -21.5 | 70% |
| Spread -22.5 | 70% |
| Spread -18.5 | 68% |
| O/U 51.5 | 67% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 66% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 66% |
| Spread -19.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 63% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 62% |
| O/U 53.5 | 61% |
| Spread -24.5 | 61% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 59% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 55% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 55% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 55% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 55% |
| Spread -27.5 | 54% |
| Oregon State 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| O/U 55.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 51% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oregon State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -28.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Oregon State O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| San Diego State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Oregon State O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Oregon State O/U 32.5 | 49% |
| Oregon State O/U 35.5 | 49% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| San Diego State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 49% |
| San Diego State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Oregon State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| O/U 61.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| O/U 57.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 44% |
| Spread -30.5 | 44% |
| O/U 59.5 | 42% |
| Spread -31.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 38% |
| O/U 63.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 35% |
| Spread -34.5 | 35% |
| O/U 67.5 | 31% |
| San Diego State O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| O/U 65.5 | 27% |
| O/U 69.5 | 27% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 26% |
| O/U 73.5 | 24% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| O/U 75.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| San Diego State O/U 23.5 | 19% |
| O/U 71.5 | 15% |
| San Diego State vs. Oregon State | 3% |
| Spread -6.5 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 2% |
| Spread -5.5 | 2% |
| Spread -4.5 | 2% |
| Spread -3.5 | 2% |
| Spread -2.5 | 2% |
| Spread -1.5 | 2% |
| Spread -7.5 | 1% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, san diego state vs. oregon state stands at 99% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between San Diego State and Oregon State, scheduled for October 10 at 6:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego State" if San Diego St…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $472K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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