Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 34.5 | 85% |
| New Mexico vs. New Mexico State | 80% |
| Spread -1.5 | 79% |
| New Mexico O/U 27.5 | 76% |
| 1H Moneyline | 76% |
| O/U 40.5 | 73% |
| Spread -3.5 | 70% |
| Spread -4.5 | 68% |
| Spread -5.5 | 67% |
| O/U 42.5 | 65% |
| Spread -6.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 64% |
| Spread -7.5 | 60% |
| O/U 44.5 | 60% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 59% |
| Spread -8.5 | 57% |
| Spread -9.5 | 56% |
| O/U 46.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| New Mexico State O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| New Mexico 1H O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| Spread -32.5 | 50% |
| Spread -29.5 | 50% |
| Spread -28.5 | 50% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| Spread -25.5 | 50% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. New Mexico State: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. New Mexico State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. New Mexico State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. New Mexico State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. New Mexico State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico vs. New Mexico State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -11.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| New Mexico State O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Spread -12.5 | 48% |
| New Mexico O/U 30.5 | 48% |
| Spread -13.5 | 46% |
| Spread -19.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| O/U 50.5 | 44% |
| New Mexico State O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 42% |
| Spread -14.5 | 41% |
| O/U 52.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 39% |
| Spread -16.5 | 37% |
| O/U 54.5 | 36% |
| Spread -17.5 | 34% |
| Spread -15.5 | 34% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 30% |
| Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| Spread -18.5 | 28% |
| O/U 58.5 | 26% |
| Spread -1.5 | 21% |
| Spread -2.5 | 20% |
| O/U 64.5 | 16% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| Spread -5.5 | 12% |
Market context
New Mexico vs. New Mexico State — current market-implied probability: 85%. In the upcoming college football game between New Mexico and New Mexico State, scheduled for September 26 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "New Mexico" if New Mexico win the game. This market…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $74K.
Methodology
We track New Mexico vs. New Mexico State across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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