1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 May 2026, 1. FC Köln will host 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 in a Bundesliga fixture. The current Polymarket pricing reflects zero probability for a YES resolution, meaning conditional tokens backing an affirmative outcome trade at negligible value on Polygon. This pricing persists despite the match being weeks away, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or minimal liquidity in the contract's order book.

Historically, Köln and Heidenheim occupy different tiers of Bundesliga competitiveness. Köln, a traditional top-flight club with European pedigree, typically commands stronger odds at home. Heidenheim, promoted to the Bundesliga in 2023, has operated as a relegation-form side in their recent seasons. Home advantage in the Bundesliga carries statistical weight—clubs win roughly 45–50% of matches on their own pitch. The 0% pricing suggests the market has settled on a binary outcome (likely Köln victory or draw) with no meaningful probability assigned to the alternative.

Traders should monitor team news closer to the settlement window, particularly injury reports and squad rotation decisions in late April 2026. Köln's European commitments or domestic cup involvement may affect squad freshness. Heidenheim's league position by May will clarify their motivation—a team fighting relegation plays differently than one already safe. The USDC liquidity depth on Polygon will determine execution costs if traders attempt to move the contract price. Settlement occurs at 15:30 UTC on match day, aligning with the Bundesliga's standard Sunday kick-off window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.