Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CR Brasil O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Brasil O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Goiás EC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Goiás EC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Goiás EC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Goiás EC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CR Brasil 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Brasil 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Goiás EC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Goiás EC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| CR Brasil (-1.5) | 0% |
| Goiás EC (-1.5) | 0% |
| CR Brasil (-2.5) | 0% |
| Goiás EC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CR Brasil O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Goiás EC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CR Brasil 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CR Brasil 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
CR Brasil faces Goiás EC in a Brazil Serie B fixture at Estádio Rei Pelé on Sunday, 12 July, with the match kicking off at 22:00 UTC. On Polymarket today, the “More Markets” contract for this game sits at 0% YES, priced in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, reflecting a market that sees no immediate likelihood of the secondary outcome triggering.
Historically, this pairing rarely produces the kind of volatile secondary events that drive “More Markets” contracts. In their 15 meetings since 2012, CRB won five, Goiás eight, and two ended in draws, with an average of 2.13 goals per match [1][6][7]. The most recent encounter, a 2-0 CRB victory on 14 June 2025, was a clean, low-scoring affair that did not spark unusual market activity [2]. Such patterns suggest the 0% pricing aligns with a trend of predictable, low-variance outcomes in this fixture.
Traders should monitor pre-match lineups and any late injury news, as these often determine whether secondary conditions like total goals or specific player actions are met. Goiás’ mixed away form and CRB’s strong head-to-head record may influence tactical approaches, but no major announcements have yet shifted the probability [1][4]. With the settlement window closing at 22:00 UTC on 12 July, the on-chain mechanics will resolve once the final whistle confirms the match outcome, locking in USDC payouts based on the conditional token logic.
Methodology
This page reviews CR Brasil vs. Goiás EC - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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