Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
24% | 76% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
24% | 76% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 24% |
| Rory McIlroy | 7% |
| Xander Schauffele | 6% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 5% |
| Keith Mitchell | 5% |
| Cameron Young | 5% |
| Sam Burns | 4% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 4% |
| Viktor Hovland | 4% |
| Si Woo Kim | 4% |
| Collin Morikawa | 4% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 3% |
| Wyndham Clark | 3% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 3% |
| Chris Gotterup | 3% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 3% |
| Jake Knapp | 3% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 3% |
| Maverick McNealy | 3% |
| Justin Rose | 3% |
| Michael Brennan | 2% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 2% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 2% |
| Rickie Fowler | 2% |
| Ryan Fox | 2% |
| Ryan Gerard | 2% |
| Russell Henley | 2% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 2% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 2% |
| Tom Kim | 2% |
| Min Woo Lee | 2% |
| Alexander Noren | 2% |
| JT Poston | 2% |
| Aaron Rai | 2% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 2% |
| Adam Scott | 2% |
| J.J. Spaun | 2% |
| Sahith Theegala | 2% |
| Justin Thomas | 2% |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 2% |
| Gary Woodland | 2% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 1% |
| Bud Cauley | 1% |
| Eric Cole | 1% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 1% |
| Ben Griffin | 1% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 1% |
| Alex Smalley | 1% |
| Sepp Straka | 1% |
| Matt McCarty | 0% |
| Player 0 | 0% |
| Player 1 | 0% |
| Player 2 | 0% |
| Player 3 | 0% |
| Player 4 | 0% |
| Player 5 | 0% |
| Player 6 | 0% |
| Player 7 | 0% |
| Player 8 | 0% |
| Player 9 | 0% |
| Player 10 | 0% |
| Player 11 | 0% |
| Player 12 | 0% |
| Player 13 | 0% |
| Player 14 | 0% |
| Player 15 | 0% |
| Player 16 | 0% |
| Player 17 | 0% |
| Player 18 | 0% |
| Player 19 | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 24% probability to pga tour: bmw championship winner. This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 BMW Championship tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the BMW Championship tournament based on th…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade PGA Tour: BMW Championship Winner on Polymarket Scam?
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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