World Cup: Player to score

Platform comparison

Market context

The listed player has a 0% chance of scoring in the 2026 FIFA World Cup according to today’s Polymarket pricing, implying the crowd believes they will not feature in any match or will be excluded from the squad entirely. On-chain, this means YES shares are worthless at 0¢ on Polygon, while NO shares trade at 100¢, reflecting a near-certain resolution to “No” under the contract’s conditional token mechanics.

Historically, 0% probabilities on Polymarket for World Cup scoring markets have only resolved to “Yes” when a player was unexpectedly called up after the market opened or when squad lists were revised post-initial pricing. In the 2022 tournament, similar zero-priced contracts for reserve players flipped only after injury-driven roster changes, but such cases remain rare and usually involve late-breaking news rather than pre-tournament speculation.

Traders should monitor official squad announcements from the player’s national federation, as any late inclusion before the group stage would instantly reprice the contract. Key catalysts include injury updates to established forwards, coach press conferences confirming final rosters, and FIFA’s official squad submission deadline, which typically falls in early June 2026. A recent Action Network report notes that Polymarket odds for players like Ronaldo and Raphinha shifted sharply only after final squad confirmations, underscoring the dependency on official team lists [3]. Until the squad is confirmed, the 0% price remains a rational reflection of exclusion risk.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.