Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade, making transit volumes a barometer of regional stability and energy markets. The 77% YES price on Polymarket reflects confidence that daily ship arrivals will reach a 7-day moving average of 60 or higher by year-end 2026. This threshold represents a return to pre-disruption baseline traffic; the market settles immediately upon IMF Portwatch publishing such a figure, creating a binary outcome tied to a single, verifiable data series rather than subjective assessments of "normalcy."

Historical precedent matters here. The strait experienced significant traffic reductions during periods of heightened US-Iran tensions and the 2022 Houthi attacks on shipping, which depressed transit calls below 50 for extended stretches. Recovery to 60+ has occurred multiple times since 2023, suggesting the threshold is achievable under current geopolitical conditions rather than a return to pre-2019 volumes. The current crowd probability of 77% prices in roughly a one-in-four chance that either sustained regional escalation or a major incident disrupts shipping for the remainder of 2026, keeping the 7-day average below the settlement level.

Traders should monitor Iranian nuclear negotiations, Houthi maritime activity reports, and US naval posture announcements—all of which move insurance premiums and rerouting decisions. IMF Portwatch publishes its data weekly; any single week hitting 60+ triggers settlement, so the market does not require sustained recovery, only one confirmed data point. The 18-month window to December 2026 provides multiple opportunities for transit volumes to spike, which underpins the elevated YES probability despite ongoing regional tensions.

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.