NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The incumbent, Adriano Espaillat, faces a serious primary challenge in New York’s 13th Congressional District for the 2026 House seat, with the Democratic nomination contest set for 23 June 2026. Polymarket currently prices the contract at 63% YES for Espaillat winning the nomination, reflecting his established base despite rising pressure from activist Darializa Avila Chevalier. The market resolves on-chain via USDC on the Polygon network, using conditional tokens that settle automatically once the Democratic Party confirms the nominee through its official consensus sources.

Historically, incumbent Democrats in New York City have held strong advantages in primary contests, even when facing high-profile challengers endorsed by progressive figures. For instance, in recent cycles, incumbents retained nominations despite endorsements from Mayor Zohran Mamdani for their opponents, as seen when Mamdani backed Avila Chevalier over Espaillat [2]. However, the 2026 race is tighter than average, with Avila Chevalier, a 32-year-old activist, mounting a credible defence that has drawn attention from Cook Political Report [9].

Traders should monitor candidate filing confirmations, primary voter turnout projections, and any shifts in endorsements from key Democratic figures. The filing deadline was 2 April 2026, and all four Democratic candidates, including Espaillat and Avila Chevalier, have officially entered the race [5]. With the primary just three days away, late campaign announcements and local polling data will be critical catalysts. City & State New York notes that the general election is set for 3 November 2026, but the primary outcome will determine the Democratic nominee regardless of any post-primary replacements [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.