Elon Musk # tweets June 18 - June 20, 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket currently has this contract priced at **0% YES**, so the market is assuming Elon Musk will make *zero* countable posts on X between 18 June 12:00 PM ET and 20 June 12:00 PM ET. That looks like an extreme stance for a two-day window on a founder whose account has historically been highly active, but the settlement rule matters: only main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts count, while replies do not, and the tracker’s “Post Counter” on Polymarket’s X tracker is the resolution source unless it misfires. [1]

For comparison, Musk has previously produced very heavy output on X, including a tracker-linked YouTube claim that he posted 61 times in a single day on 18 June 2026, which underlines how quickly this market can move if he decides to post into a news cycle. [5] More generally, his posting tends to cluster around company news, product launches, platform changes and public disputes, so a 0% price is mainly a statement that traders expect inactivity or at least no countable feed posts during the window, rather than a belief that he will become unavailable on X altogether. [1][5]

The main things to watch are direct Musk announcements, Tesla, SpaceX, xAI and X-related events, and any rapid-response commentary to headlines that could prompt reposts or quote posts. Recent coverage also shows he is still willing to use X for abrupt rule changes and high-visibility remarks, which means even one short post can settle the market if the tracker captures it for long enough, while deleted posts still count if they remain visible for about five minutes. [3][1] Because the contract settles in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, the practical question for Polymarket users is not whether Musk is “active” in a broad sense, but whether the tracker records at least one qualifying post before the window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.