Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES**, which means the market currently sees no credible path to a named attendee showing up at the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting before the 30 June settlement cut-off. For Polymarket users, the trade lives on Polygon and settles in conditional tokens against USDC, so the price is really a live read on whether a verifiable official meeting gets announced and whether the listed person is actually in the room.

That near-zero print looks harsh against the recent background of US-Iran engagement, but the key comparison is how often talks have been indirect, mediated, or fluid on dates and venues. Reuters reported on 18 April that Iran said no date had been set for the next round of negotiations with the US, after earlier high-level discussions in Islamabad ended without consensus[5]. By contrast, CNBC reported in February that the next round of talks was then expected in Geneva, with Oman saying the discussions were due that Thursday and Iran’s foreign minister still describing a diplomatic opening[1]. The pattern matters for this market: prior rounds have moved quickly from rumour to scheduling, but also slipped, changed format, or been handled through mediators rather than direct ministerial attendance[1][5][6].

For traders, the main catalysts are formal venue announcements, confirmation from mediators such as Oman or Pakistan, and whether a written agenda covers sanctions, nuclear steps, or maritime security, since those details often determine who is authorised to attend. Recent coverage from CBS said a memorandum of understanding was expected to be signed in Switzerland, with follow-on technical negotiations planned over roughly 60 days[4], while Polymarket’s own contract page says mid-June reporting pointed to a new round of formal talks after earlier stalled sessions[2]. The useful watch-items are therefore not just “talks may happen”, but the exact list of government representatives, the meeting format, and whether any name is explicitly attached before the window closes[2][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.