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Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

36 outcomes · leader: Xavier Becerra at 99%

Xavier Becerra 99% Outcomes: 36 Runner-up: 59% Σ 209% Volume: $1.7M 24h volume: $197K Liquidity: $439K Opened: 4 Dec 2025 Closes: 2 Jun 2026 26 comments

Resolution criteria: The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this ma

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Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

Market statistics

Total volume
$1.7M
24h volume
$197K
Liquidity
$439K
Open interest
$543K
Comments
26

Available prediction outcomes (36)

Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.

#1 Xavier Becerra
Xavier Becerra ▲ +0.4%
Vol $201K · 24h $32K
99% Trade →
#2 Steve Hilton
Steve Hilton ▼ -12.5%
Vol $311K · 24h $60K
59% Trade →
#3 Tom Steyer
Tom Steyer ▲ +11.0%
Vol $376K · 24h $100K
41% Trade →
#4 Dylan Colbert
Dylan Colbert ▲ +1.1%
Vol $17K · 24h $56
1% Trade →
#5 Butch Ware
Butch Ware ▲ +0.1%
Vol $10K · Liq $8K
1% Trade →
#6 Zoltan Istvan
Zoltan Istvan ▲ +0.2%
Vol $13K · Liq $10K
0% Trade →
#7 Daniel Mercuri
Daniel Mercuri
Vol $11K · Liq $12K
0% Trade →
#8 Katie Porter
Katie Porter ▲ +0.1%
Vol $16K · Liq $22K
0% Trade →
#9 Ché Ahn
Ché Ahn ▲ +0.3%
Vol $20K · Liq $10K
0% Trade →
#10 Sophia Brink
Sophia Brink
Vol $38K · Liq $10K
0% Trade →
#11 Kyle Langford
Kyle Langford ▲ +0.1%
Vol $12K · Liq $14K
0% Trade →
#12 Ryan Tillman
Ryan Tillman
Vol $2K · Liq $11K
0% Trade →
#13 Ramsey Robinson
Ramsey Robinson
Vol $6K · 24h $8
0% Trade →
#14 Derek Grasty
Derek Grasty ▼ -0.4%
Vol $29K · Liq $7K
0% Trade →
#15 Antonio Villaraigosa
Antonio Villaraigosa ▼ -0.3%
Vol $21K · 24h $1
0% Trade →
#16 Chad Bianco
Chad Bianco
Vol $113K · 24h $726
0% Trade →
#17 Ethan Agarwal
Ethan Agarwal ▲ +0.1%
Vol $4K · Liq $11K
0% Trade →
#18 Thunder Parley
Thunder Parley
Vol $56K · 24h $3
0% Trade →
#19 Eric Swalwell
Eric Swalwell
Vol $125K · 24h $119
0% Trade →
#20 Brandon Jones
Brandon Jones ▲ +0.2%
Vol $50K · 24h $4K
0% Trade →
#21 David Serpa
David Serpa
Vol $5K · Liq $3K
0% Trade →
#22 Tony Thurmond
Tony Thurmond ▲ +0.1%
Vol $16K · Liq $16K
0% Trade →
#23 Jimmy Parker
Jimmy Parker ▲ +0.1%
Vol $2K · Liq $4K
0% Trade →
#24 Leo Zacky
Leo Zacky ▼ -0.1%
Vol $8K · Liq $14K
0% Trade →
#25 Nicholas Thompson
Nicholas Thompson ▼ -0.3%
Vol $8K · Liq $4K
0% Trade →
#26 Matt Mahan
Matt Mahan ▼ -0.3%
Vol $37K · Liq $20K
0% Trade →
#27 Elaine Culotti
Elaine Culotti ▼ -0.2%
Vol $1K · Liq $11K
0% Trade →
#28 Raji Rab
Raji Rab
Vol $13K · 24h $126
0% Trade →
#29 Sharifah Hardie
Sharifah Hardie
Vol $2K · Liq $11K
0% Trade →
#30 David Thelen
David Thelen
Vol $2K · Liq $4K
0% Trade →
#31 Carolina Buhler
Carolina Buhler
Vol $9K · Liq $2K
0% Trade →
#32 Leonard Jackson
Leonard Jackson
Vol $5K · Liq $10K
0% Trade →
#33 Ian Calderon
Ian Calderon
Vol $115K · 24h $332
0% Trade →
#34 Betty Yee
Betty Yee
Vol $6K · 24h $50
0% Trade →
#35 Javen Allen
Javen Allen
Vol $4K · Liq $14K
0% Trade →
#36 Nicki Minaj
Nicki Minaj
Vol $4K · Liq $13K
0% Trade →

Market context

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this ma

Wikipedia Context

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  • Advance-Rumely
    Advance-Rumely

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  • Advanced product quality planning

    Advanced product quality planning (APQP) is a framework of procedures and techniques used to develop products in industry, particularly in the automotive industry. It differs from Six Sigma in that the goal of Six Sigma is to reduce variation but has similarities to Design for Six Sigma (DFSS).

  • Advance for Medical Laboratory Professionals

    The biweekly trade journal Advance for Medical Laboratory Professionals started in 1991. During its time in circulation, it served an audience of bench technologists, chief technologists, cytotechnologists, generalists, histotechnologists, laboratory directors/managers, laboratory section heads, medical laboratory scientists, medical laboratory technicians,

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

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