Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump faces a 9% crowd-implied probability of resigning or being removed from the presidency before the settlement window closes on 31 December 2026. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 0.09 USDC per conditional token on the Polygon network, reflecting a market consensus that permanent removal is unlikely despite rising impeachment rhetoric. The on-chain mechanics allow traders to buy or sell these tokens instantly, with settlement occurring automatically once the resolution date passes, independent of when any legal process formally concludes.

Historically, presidential removal requires either conviction following impeachment or a successful invocation of the 25th Amendment, both of which face steep political hurdles. While Democrats in the House have initiated an impeachment inquiry, conviction remains improbable as long as Republicans control the Senate, as seen in past cases where impeachment did not lead to removal [2]. Kalshi prediction markets currently estimate a 28.7% chance of impeachment and removal for Trump’s second term, a sharp rise from earlier in the year, yet this still falls well above the 9% implied by Polymarket for permanent cessation of office [1].

Traders should monitor scheduled House votes on impeachment articles, any Cabinet announcements regarding the 25th Amendment, and shifts in Republican Senate support. Recent reports confirm that impeachment inquiries are active, but without Senate backing, removal remains unlikely [2]. Key dependencies include the timing of House resolutions and potential Cabinet statements, which could trigger immediate market resolution if an announcement of resignation or removal occurs before the deadline. No recent news source has confirmed a credible path to removal, reinforcing the low probability priced into the contract.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Trump out as President before 2027? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.