Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the possibility of Putin ceasing to hold the Russian presidency by year-end 2026 at 9%, implying a 91% probability he remains in office through the settlement window. This reflects the current political stability within Russia's power structures, where constitutional mechanisms for removing an incumbent president remain untested in practice. The contract settles YES if Putin is announced as resigned or removed before 31 December 2026, regardless of implementation timing.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance for assessing this probability. No Russian president has been forcibly removed from office since the Soviet collapse, and constitutional provisions for presidential removal require supermajority parliamentary votes—a threshold Putin's United Russia party controls. The nearest comparable case is Boris Yeltsin's voluntary resignation on 31 December 1999, which transferred power to Putin himself. Health crises have periodically circulated as speculation (notably in 2022–2023), yet Putin has maintained public appearances and formal duties throughout. Gorbachev's gradual loss of authority in 1990–1991 occurred within a collapsing state structure fundamentally different from today's centralised system.

Traders monitoring this contract should track announcements from Russian state media regarding Putin's health or constitutional changes, alongside any statements from the Security Council or parliament signalling institutional shifts. Scheduled events include the 2026 State Duma elections in September, which could signal factional realignments. Western intelligence assessments, occasionally leaked to outlets like Reuters or Bloomberg, have historically moved similar markets. The contract's 27-month window means catalysts remain diffuse; most traders are pricing this as a tail-risk event dependent on unforeseen systemic shocks rather than announced succession planning.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.