Makerfield by-election Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Makerfield by-election winner at 66% on the Yes side, with USDC locked into conditional tokens on Polygon until the constituency race is formally decided. In plain terms, that implies the market sees a fairly strong chance that the eventual winner will be the candidate currently being backed by the dominant front-runner, but not a near-certainty. The contract only pays out on the named winner of the parliamentary by-election; if the result is not definitively known by 31 December 2026, it settles to Other, so late counting disputes or delays matter.

The current level sits in the middle of a familiar by-election pattern: markets often start with broad party baseline assumptions, then reprice quickly when a seat looks more competitive than the national picture would suggest. Recent reporting has pointed to the race being less straightforward than a routine Labour hold, with the Telegraph noting that polling and seat dynamics could make a Burnham-linked win less secure than some expect, while Lines has quoted a Labour lead but with Reform’s Robert Kenyon still close enough to keep the outcome live. That kind of two-horse framing usually supports a market well below 90%, because conditional tokens are sensitive to any late swing, tactical voting, or candidate confirmation risk.

For traders, the main catalysts are simple: the by-election date, final candidate line-ups, and any credible polling or canvassing updates after the resignation is formally processed. Josh Simons’ departure is the trigger, but the timing of the writ and local campaign events will matter more for pricing. Watch for official statements from Labour and Reform, plus any reporting on whether Andy Burnham is the headline contender or merely the face of the campaign, because that affects both turnout assumptions and how the market interprets “winner” probabilities.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Makerfield by-election Winner on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.