Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing a **60% YES** chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic gets back to normal before 31 December, which on this contract means IMF Portwatch printing a 7-day moving average of **60 or more** transit calls. Because the market settles on Portwatch’s reported data, traders are really buying and selling exposure to the shipping series in **USDC on Polygon** through conditional tokens, not the geopolitical story in the abstract.

That price sits above the more cautious tone in recent comparable markets. In July, CNBC reported Kalshi traders at 43% for a return to normal by 1 December and 52% by 1 January 2027, while also noting Polymarket was around 59% on the same definition of “normal”. Reuters and other ship-tracking coverage in April and June showed traffic still far below pre-crisis levels, with some reports putting activity at less than 10% of usual and others describing a slow pickup rather than a full recovery. That history matters because this market only needs a sustained seven-day average above the threshold, but the path there has repeatedly proved fragile.

For traders, the key catalysts are any further U.S.–Iran security announcements, ceasefire or enforcement updates, and shipping-industry signals that vessels are re-entering the route in volume. A recent Reuters report said tankers had started to pick up again after Iran lifted an effective blockade tied to a 60-day ceasefire, but also framed the recovery as gradual rather than immediate. The practical dependency is simple: if Portwatch keeps publishing near-zero or low-traffic counts, the YES side depends on a durable step-change in commercial transits, not a one-off spike.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.