Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **66% YES** today, which implies traders think an official Phase II agreement between Israel and Hamas is more likely than not before the 31 December 2026 settlement deadline. On Polymarket, that exposure is held via **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the market settling through **conditional tokens** once there is a publicly announced mutual agreement that matches the contract’s definition.

The current price sits between two readings of the ceasefire track: first, Phase I was successfully implemented in October 2025, with the “yellow line” pullback and hostage-prisoner exchanges completed; second, Phase II has already been publicly discussed but not secured. US reporting in January and December 2025 suggested Phase II could follow once remaining hostage issues were resolved, but later coverage said talks had stalled over Hamas disarmament, Israeli withdrawals, and security arrangements in Gaza.[1][12][14] That history matters for interpreting 66%: the market is pricing a deal that is feasible, but one that has repeatedly slipped when negotiations moved from broad framework to enforceable terms.[4][7]

A trader watching this market should focus on three catalysts: formal US, Qatari or Egyptian mediation statements; any timetable for renewed talks or leader-level meetings; and whether hostage remains, prisoner exchanges, or verification steps are used as preconditions for the next phase. AP reported in December 2025 that Netanyahu said the second phase could begin soon, contingent on Hamas returning the final hostage remains, while later summaries said Phase II was still stalled despite US declarations that the process was moving forward.[12][1] Because the contract resolves only on an **official agreement**, not on rhetorical progress or partial implementation, headlines about “advancing”, “launching”, or “planning” matter less than a public mutual announcement with clear terms.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.