How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Clacton by-election Winner | Polymarket Scam

Name: Clacton by-election Winner
Start: 2026-07-07T15:05:40.402Z
End: 2027-06-30T23:59:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	95%	5%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Place a position →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	95%	5%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Place a position →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Place a position →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Place a position →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Nigel Farage	95%
Person B	50%
Person C	50%
Person D	50%
Person E	50%
Person F	50%
Person G	50%
Person H	50%
Person I	50%
Person J	50%
Person K	50%
Person L	50%
Person M	50%
Person N	50%
Person O	50%
Person P	50%
Person Q	50%
Person R	50%
Person S	50%
Person T	50%
Person U	50%
Person V	50%
Person W	50%
Person X	50%
Person Y	50%
Person Z	50%
Person AA	50%
Person AB	50%
Person AC	50%
Person AD	50%
Person AE	50%
Person AF	50%
Person AG	50%
Person AH	50%
Person AI	50%
Person AJ	50%
Person AK	50%
Person AL	50%
Person AM	50%
Person AN	50%
Person AO	50%
Person AP	50%
Person AQ	50%
Person AR	50%
Other	50%
Count Binface	5%
Giles Watling	0%
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul	0%
Matthew Bensilum	0%
Natasha Osben	0%
Tony Mack	0%
Andrew Pemberton	0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, clacton by-election winner stands at 95% likelihood according to current market consensus. A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market w…

Methodology

We track Clacton by-election Winner across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?: Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?: A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?: Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?: On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?: The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporterand

Emma RobertsFinancial Journalist

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Clacton by-election Winner

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Clacton by-election Winner on Polymarket Scam?

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