Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %

Platform comparison

Market context

Nigel Farage announced his resignation as Member of Parliament for Clacton in early 2024, triggering a by-election that the Conservative Party and other contenders must now contest. The Polymarket contract currently prices a YES resolution—Farage standing again and securing a measurable vote share—at 1% on USDC/Polygon, reflecting the market's assessment that his stated departure is final. The conditional token structure means traders holding YES tokens would only profit if Farage reverses course, registers as a candidate, and competes in the actual poll.

Clacton has been Farage's seat since 2019, when he won with 58.2% of the vote on a Brexit Party ticket. The constituency remains one of the safest seats for any candidate aligned with Eurosceptic or populist messaging, though historical precedent suggests sitting MPs who resign rarely re-contest their own seats immediately. The 1% probability reflects both the explicit nature of Farage's resignation announcement and the rarity of such reversals in UK politics.

Traders should monitor whether Farage makes any public statements suggesting a change of mind before the writ is formally issued, as this would be the primary catalyst for repricing. The Electoral Commission's official notice of the by-election date and candidate nomination deadlines—typically three weeks after the writ—will be critical checkpoints. Any indication that Farage intends to stand as a candidate, whether for Reform UK or another party, would immediately shift the contract's valuation on-chain.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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Is this market available outside the US?

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Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.