Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Victor Marx | 80% |
| Barbara Kirkmeyer | 17% |
| Scott Bottoms | 0% |
| Joshua Griffin | 0% |
| Greg Lopez | 0% |
| Will McBride | 0% |
| Stevan Gess | 0% |
| Brycen Garrison | 0% |
| Daniel Thomas | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
| Candidate B | 0% |
| Candidate D | 0% |
| Candidate F | 0% |
| Candidate H | 0% |
| Candidate J | 0% |
| Candidate L | 0% |
| Candidate N | 0% |
| Candidate P | 0% |
| Candidate R | 0% |
| Candidate T | 0% |
| Candidate V | 0% |
| Candidate X | 0% |
| Candidate Z | 0% |
| Mark Baisley | 0% |
| Jason Clark | 0% |
| Jason Mikesell | 0% |
| Jon Gray-Ginsberg | 0% |
| Bob Brinkerhoff | 0% |
| Robert Moore | 0% |
| Candidate A | 0% |
| Candidate C | 0% |
| Candidate E | 0% |
| Candidate G | 0% |
| Candidate I | 0% |
| Candidate K | 0% |
| Candidate M | 0% |
| Candidate O | 0% |
| Candidate Q | 0% |
| Candidate S | 0% |
| Candidate U | 0% |
| Candidate W | 0% |
| Candidate Y | 0% |
Market context
The Colorado Governor Republican Primary Winner prediction market currently prices this outcome at 80% YES. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Colorado, scheduled to take place on June 30, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the pri…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
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