GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying a public GPT-6 launch by 31 December 2025 is no longer expected, with settlement here depending on OpenAI making a model explicitly named GPT-6 generally available rather than merely testing it behind closed doors. Because the market settles on public accessibility, a private beta, enterprise-only preview, or invite-only access would not be enough; the relevant Polymarket position is held in USDC on Polygon and resolves via conditional tokens once the documented outcome is known.

The closest comparable read-through is OpenAI’s recent naming pattern: what many watchers expected to become GPT-6 appears to have landed instead as GPT-5.5 “Spud” on 23 April 2026, which cut against earlier speculation that a numbered leap was imminent. That matters for traders because prediction markets often repriced from “next model soon” to “maybe the branding changes, not the timing”; if OpenAI is willing to slot a major release into the existing GPT-5 family, the hurdle for a true GPT-6 before year-end becomes higher, not lower. Recent coverage also notes that OpenAI had not published a launch date, architecture, pricing, or parameter count for GPT-6 around the time the market was being watched, reinforcing the gap between rumour and settlement-grade evidence.[1][12]

The main catalysts to watch are straightforward: an OpenAI blog post, product changelog, API release notes, or a ChatGPT announcement that names GPT-6 and confirms open access to the general public. Traders should also watch for launch timing around major product events, since OpenAI has historically paired model releases with staged rollouts across ChatGPT tiers before broader API access. The key dependency is not just model completion but a public deployment decision, because on-chain resolution will hinge on whether the release is unmistakably available beyond closed testing.[9][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.