Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships routinely pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil flows, yet traffic has collapsed dramatically since the Iran war began. Historical data from IMF PortWatch shows that daily crossings, which previously averaged between 75 and 125 vessels, have fallen by more than 95% [7]. In the week of 9–15 March 2026, only 41 transit calls were recorded, yielding a 7-day average of just 5.86 ships [1]. This stark reduction frames the current 46% YES probability: the market is betting on whether traffic will rebound to pre-war levels or remain suppressed by ongoing security threats.

Traders should monitor announcements regarding regional de-escalation, naval patrol schedules, and any shifts in GPS jamming or AIS spoofing incidents that force vessels to go dark [5]. Recent reports confirm reduced traffic since late February 2026 due to attacks on commercial ships [4]. Over 30,000 vessels pass annually through the strait, transporting more than 20 million barrels of oil daily [6]. The on-chain mechanics on Polymarket, settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, price this contract today based on whether IMF PortWatch will finalize a daily number equal to or above the listed value before July 31, 2026. Watch for updates from PortWatch’s weekly revisions, as data must be finalized before inclusion [3].

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Methodology

This page reviews Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.