Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket’s contract is trading at 18% YES, implying the crowd sees only a limited chance that IMF Portwatch prints a 7-day average of at least 60 Strait of Hormuz arrivals before 31 October. In practical terms, holders of the YES side need a sustained recovery in counted commercial transits, not just a one-day bounce, because the market settles on the published moving average and conditional tokens on Polygon are only redeemable if that threshold is reached.

That pricing looks conservative against the recent traffic backdrop. Reuters reported Hormuz commodity vessel transits at nine on 20 August, unchanged from the previous day, and only five on the weekend before, while other market coverage put August traffic well below normal and still far from the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 85 ships a day.[2][3][4] IMF Portwatch-style readings cited in market trackers have shown single-digit daily crossings and a seven-day average around 4% of typical in late August, which leaves a wide gap to the 60-call trigger.[1][7][14]

For traders, the main catalysts are not oil prices alone but any concrete easing in maritime risk: ceasefire language, naval or corridor arrangements, carrier rerouting decisions, and fresh Portwatch updates that lift the 7-day moving average. Reuters also reported that traffic had slowed after renewed tanker attacks and that shipping remained capped amid US-Iran tensions, so the near-term path depends on whether operators resume regular passages rather than on headline diplomacy alone.[3][4][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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