Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **7% YES**, so the market is still treating a return to normal Strait of Hormuz traffic as a low-probability outcome before the end-of-August settlement window. On the platform, the position is held in **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the outcome determined by whether the relevant **conditional token** resolves to Yes once IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of **60 or more arrivals** at any point before expiry.

That low price is consistent with the recent traffic history. Reuters reported that the strait had fallen to a trickle in April, with traffic at well below 10% of normal volumes, and later updates still showed only partial recovery rather than a clean return to pre-conflict patterns.[2][3] More recent reporting suggested traffic improved after the June framework deal, but remained below peacetime levels; Reuters said on 26 June that overall sailings reached 62 on one day, yet still “not yet fully” normal.[10] Kpler-linked reporting in mid-July then showed fresh disruption, with just three commodity vessels crossing on 17 July and traffic dropping to a two-month low after renewed attacks.[14][15]

For traders, the key catalysts are changes in **security risk** and **shipping guidance**, not just diplomatic headlines. Reuters and CNBC both noted that traffic has repeatedly failed to normalise because shipowners respond to blockade signals, attacks, and official safety advisories rather than declarations alone.[12][14][15] The main things to watch are any U.S.-Iran ceasefire or maritime reopening statements, mine-clearing or corridor-announcement updates, and whether carriers resume regular schedules rather than selective transits; if IMF Portwatch’s 7-day average can hold at or above 60, the market resolves immediately, but isolated daily spikes are not enough.[4][8][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.