How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are moving in and out of the Persian Gulf again, easing oil prices after weeks of near-standstill traffic caused by the Iran war [5]. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20–30% of global oil consumption daily, saw a sharp rebound over the weekend of July 6–7, with 29 vessels passing on Saturday and 12 on Sunday, though this remains a drop from the 74 ships recorded earlier in the week [6]. This volatility frames the current 83% YES probability on Polymarket: traders are betting that the recovery trend will hold through the settlement window ending 12 July, despite the recent weekend dip.

Historically, Hormuz traffic has swung between severe bottlenecks and rapid recoveries depending on geopolitical escalations. In early June 2026, outbound commercial traffic hit zero for 72 hours, with no crude tankers moving, reflecting a severe bottleneck crisis [3]. Yet by early July, the NYT reported continued recovery over the weekend, suggesting the choke point is stabilising [5]. The 83% implied probability aligns with this shift from paralysis to cautious activity, but traders must weigh whether the weekend’s 41-vessel total is enough to sustain a weekly average that meets the market’s threshold.

Key catalysts include any new announcements from Iran regarding waterway access, weekend attack aftermaths, and daily IMF Portwatch finalisations. CBS News noted a sharp drop after weekend attacks, highlighting how quickly security incidents can disrupt flows [6]. Traders on Polygon should monitor USDC conditional token prices as each day’s data finalises—once the next day’s point is available, the prior day is locked in for settlement. Windward’s July 12 intelligence update will be critical, as it captures the final days of the settlement window [10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.