Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Candidate S | 50% |
| Candidate T | 50% |
| Candidate U | 50% |
| Candidate V | 50% |
| Candidate W | 50% |
| Candidate X | 50% |
| Candidate Y | 50% |
| Candidate Z | 50% |
| Candidate AA | 50% |
| Candidate AB | 50% |
| Candidate AC | 50% |
| Candidate AD | 50% |
| Candidate AE | 50% |
| Candidate AF | 50% |
| Candidate AG | 50% |
| Candidate AH | 50% |
| Candidate AI | 50% |
| Candidate AJ | 50% |
| Candidate AK | 50% |
| Candidate AL | 50% |
| Candidate AM | 50% |
| Candidate AN | 50% |
| Candidate AO | 50% |
| Candidate AP | 50% |
| Candidate AQ | 50% |
| Candidate AR | 50% |
| Candidate AS | 50% |
| Candidate AT | 50% |
| Candidate AU | 50% |
| Candidate AV | 50% |
| Candidate AW | 50% |
| Candidate AX | 50% |
| Candidate AY | 50% |
| Candidate AZ | 50% |
| Candidate BA | 50% |
| Candidate BB | 50% |
| Candidate BC | 50% |
| Candidate BD | 50% |
| Candidate BE | 50% |
| Candidate BF | 50% |
| Candidate BG | 50% |
| Candidate BH | 50% |
| Candidate BI | 50% |
| Candidate BJ | 50% |
| Candidate BK | 50% |
| Candidate BL | 50% |
| Candidate BM | 50% |
| Candidate BN | 50% |
| Candidate BO | 50% |
| Candidate BP | 50% |
| Candidate BQ | 50% |
| Candidate BR | 50% |
| Candidate BS | 50% |
| Candidate BT | 50% |
| Candidate BU | 50% |
| Candidate BV | 50% |
| Candidate BW | 50% |
| Candidate BX | 50% |
| Candidate BY | 50% |
| Candidate BZ | 50% |
| Candidate CA | 50% |
| Candidate CB | 50% |
| Candidate CC | 50% |
| Candidate CD | 50% |
| Candidate CE | 50% |
| Candidate CF | 50% |
| Candidate CG | 50% |
| Candidate CH | 50% |
| Candidate CI | 50% |
| Candidate CJ | 50% |
| Candidate CK | 50% |
| Candidate CL | 50% |
| Candidate CM | 50% |
| Candidate CN | 50% |
| Candidate CO | 50% |
| Candidate CP | 50% |
| Candidate CQ | 50% |
| Candidate CR | 50% |
| Candidate CS | 50% |
| Candidate CT | 50% |
| Candidate CU | 50% |
| Candidate CV | 50% |
| Other | 50% |
| Ian Buck | 24% |
| Rene Haas | 21% |
| Colette Kress | 10% |
| Jensen Huang (No Change) | 9% |
| Johny Srouji | 8% |
| Tim Cook | 5% |
| Nikesh Arora | 3% |
| Jay Puri | 2% |
| Lisa Su | 2% |
| Michael Kagan | 2% |
| Debora Shoquist | 1% |
| Nico Caprez | 1% |
| Thomas Kurian | 1% |
| Chris Malachowsky | 1% |
| Eric Schmidt | 1% |
| Jonah Alben | 1% |
| Madison Huang | 0% |
| Bill Dally | 0% |
| Hock Tan | 0% |
| Spencer Huang | 0% |
| Matt Garman | 0% |
| Pat Gelsinger | 0% |
| Nick Parker | 0% |
| Curtis Priem | 0% |
Market context
Next CEO of NVIDIA?. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 18% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2029-01-01T04:59:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
World-affairs prediction markets price discrete geopolitical outcomes — ceasefires, treaty signings, leadership transitions — and tend to drift on rumour and snap-correct on official announcements.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Methodology
We track Next CEO of NVIDIA? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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