"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

Young Washington is a historical epic about the early life of George Washington, released this Fourth of July weekend to mark America’s 250th anniversary, with early tracking suggesting a domestic opening between $23 million and $35 million[3]. On Polymarket today, the contract for a specific box office bracket is priced at 0% YES, implying the crowd believes the film will not reach that threshold, despite Angel Studios’ wide release on 2,700 screens[2]. The on-chain mechanics use USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens determining settlement once The Numbers publishes final 3-day figures for July 3–5[2].

Historically, July 4 weekends can be quiet for indie releases, but historical epics have shown resilience; however, recent collapses like *Supergirl*, which fell 76% in its second weekend, highlight how fragile opening momentum can be if audience return is weak[1]. While *Young Washington* has strong early tracking, comparable PG-13 wide releases have sometimes underperformed if they lack broad appeal beyond niche audiences, framing why the 0% probability may reflect caution rather than dismissal[2].

Traders should watch Friday’s final domestic gross, currently estimated at $7.60 million including previews, and monitor whether Saturday and Sunday meet expectations to hit the $23 million+ floor[7]. The key catalyst is the finalisation of The Numbers’ 3-day data, which will override studio estimates and settle the market[2]. Any sudden drop in daily attendance or competition from *Minions & Monsters* could suppress the total, making the final weekend figures the decisive factor[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.