"The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

The Odyssey's second weekend domestic box office performance—specifically its three-day gross from 24–26 July—is currently priced at 1% YES on Polygon, meaning the market is pricing in an extremely low probability of hitting the upper bracket thresholds. At this price, conditional tokens representing "yes" outcomes trade at roughly 0.01 USDC per contract, reflecting deep scepticism about the film's staying power past its opening frame. The settlement mechanism relies on final figures from The Numbers' Box Office tab rather than studio estimates, which typically arrive by late Sunday evening but may require adjustment into Monday as actual receipts are reconciled.

Second-weekend holds in the 50–75% range are standard for wide releases with solid opening weekends, though event films and franchise entries often perform better. The Odyssey's opening weekend result will be the primary determinant of what traders should expect; a strong debut (above $40 million) could easily generate a second-weekend gross sufficient to clear mid-range brackets, whilst a soft opening would validate the current 1% pricing. Recent comparable releases like Deadpool & Wolverine (July 2024) held 56% in its second weekend, whilst original IP tends toward sharper declines unless critical reception drives word-of-mouth momentum.

Traders should monitor early reviews and audience scores from Rotten Tomatoes and CinemaScore, which typically emerge Friday evening and shape Saturday–Sunday traffic. Competition from other releases during that weekend window, holiday scheduling effects around late July, and any studio marketing pushes in the second week will influence footfall. The Numbers updates its daily figures through Sunday night, so settlement should be final by 27 July morning.

Methodology

This page reviews "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.