Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

A nationwide internet blackout commenced in Iran on 28 February 2026 following military escalation involving the United States and Israel. This market prices the probability of restoration by 30 April 2026—a 61-day window. On Polymarket, the contract currently trades at 0%, reflecting the crowd's assessment that reconnection within this timeframe is effectively impossible. The USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon settle binary: YES if credible international reporting confirms broad, general internet connectivity has resumed; NO otherwise. The zero probability suggests traders view either the conflict's trajectory or Iran's strategic calculus as incompatible with restoration within two months.

Historical precedent offers limited comfort for YES positions. Iran's 2019 internet shutdown lasted approximately one week during fuel-price protests, whilst the 2022 Mahsa Amini unrest saw partial disruptions over days. However, those incidents occurred during domestic crises rather than active military conflict. The 1973 Yom Kippur War saw communications disruptions but not modern internet blackouts. A 2023 report from Access Now documented that conflict-driven shutdowns in Syria and Yemen persisted for months or years, suggesting infrastructure damage and political will compound restoration timelines.

Traders monitoring this contract should track ceasefire negotiations, damage assessments to Iran's internet infrastructure, and statements from the Iranian government regarding reconnection timelines. Reuters and AP reporting on diplomatic talks would signal shifting probabilities. Additionally, any announcement regarding US sanctions relief or international mediation efforts could alter the calculus, though the current 0% pricing suggests the market views such developments as unlikely within the settlement window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.