Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint where shipping traffic has not yet returned to pre-conflict levels, with only a 10% chance on Polymarket that the 7-day moving average of transit calls will hit 60 before the end of June 2026. This low probability reflects the tangible delays in mine removal and the complex logistics of reopening the strait under Iranian arrangements, despite recent diplomatic announcements.

Historically, similar geopolitical disruptions in major shipping lanes have taken months to resolve; for instance, the World Bank explicitly predicts Hormuz transit will not return to pre-aggression levels until late 2026, a timeline that starkly contrasts with the June deadline in this contract[4]. While Kalshi traders now assign a 57% chance of normalisation before August following President Trump’s memorandum of understanding with Iran, the mechanical resolution criterion of this Polymarket contract—requiring 60 calls by 30 June—remains a steep hurdle given the lag between political deals and actual vessel arrivals[2].

Traders should closely monitor the signing of the Friday agreement and subsequent mine-clearing operations, as Vance has stated the deal will enable toll-free passage for an extended period, yet the Washington Post notes that restarting traffic is long, complicated, and risky even with consensus[2][7]. The immediate catalyst is the official publication of transit data by IMF Portwatch; until the 7-day moving average is confirmed above 60, the market will likely stay anchored near its current 10% price, with USDC conditional tokens on Polygon reflecting this on-chain uncertainty.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.