Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most strategically contested waterways, with roughly one-fifth of global oil passing through its 21-nautical-mile width annually. Polymarket currently prices the probability of warship transits through the strait by end-July 2026 at 4% YES, implying traders assess the risk of military vessel passage as remote. The contract settles on confirmed transits by any nation's navy, including support and logistics vessels, provided credible reporting or official government acknowledgement documents the passage.

Historical precedent suggests the 4% pricing may underestimate baseline activity. The United States Navy conducts regular freedom-of-navigation operations through the strait, with documented transits occurring multiple times yearly; allied navies including those of France, the United Kingdom, and Australia have similarly passed through in recent years without triggering major escalation. Iran's periodic naval exercises and blockade rhetoric have not prevented routine international military traffic. The low probability appears to reflect either trader scepticism about definitional clarity—whether routine, announced transits count as reportable events—or genuine expectation of reduced naval activity in the settlement window.

Traders monitoring this contract should track announcements from the US Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, regarding scheduled freedom-of-navigation operations. Regional tensions tied to Israeli-Iranian dynamics, Houthi activity in the Red Sea, or sanctions enforcement could accelerate transit scheduling. Recent reporting from Reuters and maritime tracking services documents that major powers maintain standing naval presence in the region; any formal announcement of planned operations through the strait would likely move the market sharply, as would unexpected Iranian restrictions on passage.

Methodology

This page reviews Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.