US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket’s contract is trading at just **1% YES**, which means the market is pricing a near-total failure to get a qualifying written instrument signed or formally adopted by the 31 August deadline. On-chain, that view is reflected in the conditional-token price on Polygon and settled in USDC, so traders are effectively marking the probability that a document meeting the market’s exact wording appears in time, not simply that talks continue.

The closest historical reference is the 2015 JCPOA, which was a signed multilateral nuclear accord with concrete limits, inspection terms and sanctions relief; by contrast, the current process is still framed as an interim framework with a 60-day negotiating window and unresolved details on enrichment, stockpiles and verification.[5][2] Recent reporting suggests the June 14 announcement was an initial agreement that launched further negotiations rather than a completed final settlement, with Reuters saying a final agreement was to be discussed over the following 60 days and AP describing the arrangement as opening that timeline while leaving tougher issues for later.[3][1] That distinction matters on Polymarket because a market on a signed “final deal” usually needs a specific instrument, not just headlines about dialogue or de-escalation.

For traders, the main catalysts are the formal negotiating calendar, any announced signing session, and whether the parties convert the framework into a signed memorandum or another adopted text before 31 August. CSIS said the MOU was slated for signature in Geneva on 19 June, while Reuters reported talks on oil sanctions waivers, asset releases and nuclear limits, and later coverage indicated a meeting had already been postponed after fresh regional violence.[2][3][7] If those schedules slip, or if the parties keep exchanging drafts without a mutually signed instrument, the YES case stays weak despite the headline diplomacy.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.