What price will Bitcoin hit on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 28 June 2026, the market will settle on the exact price of one Bitcoin at 7am EDT, a real-world snapshot that traders on Polymarket are betting on using USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens. Today, the contract shows a 0% implied probability for the "YES" outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the price will not hit the specified threshold, a stance that contrasts sharply with recent volatility.

Historically, Bitcoin has swung between extremes, reaching an all-time high of $126,198.07 in October 2025 before dipping to $60,074 in early 2026, with May 28, 2026, seeing a price of $73,459.89, roughly $1,964 lower than the previous day[1][6]. This pattern of sharp corrections followed by recoveries frames the current 0% probability as potentially premature, given that technical analyses for mid-2026 forecast a minimum of $65,266.97 and a peak of $91,945, with June 28 specifically predicted at $60,674.15[3].

Traders should monitor upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and any major institutional adoption announcements, as these catalysts often drive sudden price movements. Recent reports from Anthony Pompliano suggest a model projecting Bitcoin could reach $444,000 by mid-2026 due to shrinking tradable supply and rising global M2 money, though this remains a speculative outlier compared to more conservative forecasts[5]. The settlement window ends on 29 June 2026 at 04:00 UTC, requiring precise timing for any on-chain position adjustments.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on June 28? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.