Highest temperature in NYC on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

New York City's weather on 9 June 2026 will determine which temperature bracket captures the day's peak reading at LaGuardia Airport. The settlement mechanism relies on historical data from Weather Underground, with resolution tied to the single highest Fahrenheit temperature recorded across all daylight and evening hours. On Polymarket, this contract currently trades at 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, a technical artefact reflecting minimal liquidity or an absence of active positions rather than genuine certainty about the outcome.

June temperatures at LaGuardia historically cluster between 75–85°F, with occasional excursions into the low 90s during heat waves. The station's thirty-year average high for early June sits near 78°F. Examining past years reveals that extreme heat—temperatures exceeding 95°F—occurs roughly once every five to seven years in this window, whilst readings below 70°F remain uncommon but plausible during cooler-than-normal patterns. The current 0% pricing suggests the market has yet to attract substantive trading activity, leaving all temperature bands effectively unpriced.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather forecasts released in May 2026, particularly any signals of Atlantic ridge positioning or tropical moisture patterns that could drive anomalous heat. The National Weather Service's extended outlooks and any El Niño or La Niña classifications will influence June conditions. Settlement occurs at midday on 9 June, creating a hard deadline for position adjustments once the actual high temperature becomes observable in real time.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 9? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.