US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Market context

On 14 June 2026, the United States and Iran jointly announced a written diplomatic agreement, with a signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. The market resolves YES if any portion of this agreement text becomes publicly available by 1 July 2026, 23:59 ET. Currently trading at 89% on Polygon, this contract reflects substantial confidence that disclosure will occur within the fortnight following the signing date. The conditional token structure means traders holding YES positions benefit from USDC settlement if even partial text reaches public domain through official channels, media leaks, or congressional disclosure.

Historical precedent suggests major US-Iran agreements tend toward eventual transparency, though timelines vary considerably. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) saw its full text released publicly within weeks of finalisation, whilst earlier frameworks like the 1981 Algiers Accords remained partially classified for years. The 89% probability reflects market participants' assessment that a 2026 agreement would follow the JCPOA model of rapid disclosure rather than the classified approach, particularly given contemporary expectations around government transparency and congressional oversight requirements.

Traders should monitor congressional notification schedules, which typically precede or accompany formal agreement releases. The State Department's standard practice involves briefing relevant committees before public release, creating a disclosure cascade. Watch for statements from the House Foreign Affairs Committee and Senate leadership in late June, as these often signal imminent public availability. Media reporting from Reuters, AP, and specialist outlets covering Iran policy will likely provide first notice of text circulation, whether through official channels or leaked copies.

Methodology

This page reviews US-Iran deal text released by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.