Norway vs. Senegal - Exact Score

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Market context

On 22 June 2026 at 8:00 PM ET, Norway and Senegal will meet at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey for a pivotal FIFA World Cup Group I clash, with the market currently pricing an exact score outcome at 8% YES. This on-chain contract, settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, reflects the tight odds seen in traditional bookmakers, where Norway holds a +100 money-line advantage and the total goals line sits at 2.5 with -115 odds on both sides[1][3]. The settlement window closes at 00:00 UTC on 23 June, resolving only on the 90-minute result, excluding extra time and shoot-outs.

Historically, exact score markets in World Cup group stages rarely exceed 10% probability unless one side is a dominant favourite, yet Norway’s recent emphatic win against Iraq and Senegal’s risk of early elimination if they lose again create a volatile backdrop[5][9]. In Senegal’s four World Cup appearances, including their 2002 quarter-final run, they have averaged 1.5 goals per game, while Norway’s lone head-to-head meeting with Senegal since 2006 ended in a 1-0 victory for Norway, suggesting a narrow margin is plausible but not guaranteed[7][8].

Traders should monitor Haaland’s fitness after his brace against Iraq and any late lineup announcements from both squads, as both teams train intensively ahead of the match[2][6]. The match kicks off at 00:00 UTC on 23 June, with doors opening at 5:00 PM ET, and any postponement will keep the market open until completion[3][4]. Recent reports confirm both teams are in Greensboro and New York respectively, with no injury concerns reported as of this morning, though weather or referee decisions could shift the exact score probability[2][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.