Haiti vs. Scotland

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will face each other in the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June 2026. The Polymarket contract pricing this fixture at 62% YES reflects a straightforward interpretation: the market is assigning roughly two-to-one odds that Haiti advances or draws, whilst Scotland is priced as the marginal favourite to win outright. On-chain, traders are holding conditional tokens denominated in USDC on Polygon, with settlement tied to the final match result once confirmed by official FIFA records.

Scotland's recent competitive record provides the clearest historical anchor. They qualified for Euro 2024 and have maintained a UEFA ranking around 40th globally; Haiti, by contrast, has struggled in CONCACAF qualifying and typically ranks outside the top 100. Head-to-head records are sparse—these nations rarely meet—but Scotland's infrastructure, player depth, and tournament experience create a structural advantage that the 62% YES probability may undervalue. The market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty, possibly reflecting Haiti's home advantage or the volatility inherent in knockout-stage football.

Traders should monitor squad announcements from both federations in the weeks preceding the match, particularly injury updates for Scotland's key midfielders and forwards. Fixture congestion in the 2025–26 domestic season could affect player fitness. Additionally, watch for any late-stage tactical shifts or managerial changes within either camp. The settlement window closes at 01:00 UTC on 14 June, giving traders roughly 24 hours after full-time to adjust positions based on confirmed results before the contract resolves.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.