Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 97% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 55% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 53% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dean Henderson: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dean Henderson: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Dean Henderson: 2+ saves | 45% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 2+ saves | 45% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 41% |
| Dean Henderson: 4+ saves | 35% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 32% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 28% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 27% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 17% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 4+ saves | 0% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 5+ saves | 0% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
Market context
England and DR Congo face off in their first-ever FIFA World Cup meeting at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, with the match scheduled for 12:00 PM ET today. The game determines which side advances to the Round of 16 to play either Mexico or Ecuador, setting the stage for a high-stakes knockout encounter.
Historically, England under Thomas Tuchel have frequently produced low-scoring, controlled victories, with seven of their seventeen matches ending in a precise 2–0 scoreline, a pattern that frames the current 9% crowd-implied probability for player props as unusually cautious given the defensive trends. Comparable knockout fixtures involving England in recent tournaments have often seen under 2.5 total goals, reinforcing the view that the market may be overpricing individual player achievements in a tight, tactical contest.
Traders should monitor the official lineups released shortly before kick-off, particularly the availability of Declan Rice for England and Yoane Wissa for DR Congo, who has scored three of his nation’s four tournament goals and is a key catalyst for any goalscorer prop. Recent analysis from FanDuel highlights Wissa’s scoring record and suggests Anthony Gordon as a strong candidate for shots on target, making his pre-match fitness a critical dependency for conditional token outcomes on the Polygon network.
Methodology
We track England vs. DR Congo - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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