WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

WTI crude oil will settle on 11 June 2026 based on the closing price reported by the US Energy Information Administration or equivalent benchmark. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% probability of YES, suggesting traders believe the settlement price will fall at or below the strike level specified in the full market terms. On-chain settlement occurs via USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens representing YES and NO outcomes; the market resolves after the official close and relevant data sources confirm the final figure.

Historical volatility in WTI pricing provides context for assessing whether a 0% crowd probability reflects genuine consensus or mispricing. Over the past five years, WTI has ranged from below $30 to above $120 per barrel, driven by geopolitical shocks, OPEC production decisions, and macroeconomic cycles. A zero probability implies near-certainty that the June 2026 close will remain below the strike—an extreme conviction that warrants scrutiny against seasonal patterns and longer-term forecasts, which typically show crude trading within a band rather than at absolute floors or ceilings.

Traders monitoring this contract should track OPEC+ meeting outcomes, US inventory reports (released weekly by the EIA), and any announcements regarding sanctions, supply disruptions, or recession signals that could shift demand expectations. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East and production decisions by major exporters remain the primary catalysts for sharp moves. Currency fluctuations, particularly dollar strength, also influence WTI pricing; a stronger dollar typically pressures crude prices downward, whilst weakness can support them.

Methodology

We track WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.