Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic’s private-market valuation sits at $1.14 trillion as of July 2026, according to Nasdaq Private Market’s latest NPM Price, yet the Polymarket contract for hitting the listed threshold by December 31 only trades at 12% YES. This low implied probability contrasts sharply with the 95% crowd-implied chance that the firm will exceed $1.1 trillion and the 78% odds for $1.5 trillion, suggesting traders view the specific target in this market as a steep step beyond current consensus [2][3].

Historical comps show Anthropic’s valuation surged from $650 billion in early May to $992 billion by late May, then jumped to $1.14 trillion in July—a 18% rise from its $965 billion Series H-1 round [2][4]. While prediction markets price even odds for a $1.9 trillion valuation by end-2026, a $2.0 trillion print remains a 43% bet, indicating the market sees a clear inflection point between $1.5T and $2T that this contract likely targets [2].

Traders should watch for the next NPM update on trading days, released daily at 1:00 PM ET, and any follow-on funding announcements or IPO progress after Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on 1 June 2026 [1][10]. The $65 billion Series H-1 round that drove the $965 billion valuation set a precedent for rapid re-rating, but the pace to the listed threshold now depends on whether secondary trading on Nasdaq Private Market sustains its current 18% monthly gain trajectory [2][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.