What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in June 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

WTI crude oil futures will trade actively throughout June 2026, and this market asks whether the Active Month contract will touch a specific price level at any point during that month's trading sessions. The 0% crowd probability reflects either an extreme price target or insufficient liquidity in the USDC-settled conditional token pair on Polygon; traders are currently pricing near-zero conviction that WTI will breach the threshold, suggesting the strike sits well outside consensus forecasts for mid-2026 oil valuations.

Historical volatility in WTI provides essential context. Between 2020 and 2024, the contract has swung from negative pricing (April 2020) to peaks above $130 per barrel, with typical intra-month ranges of $5–$15 in calmer periods. The 2022 energy crisis saw WTI spike $20 in a single week following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Current 0% pricing implies either a strike beyond the 2008–2024 historical range or market participants assigning negligible probability to the specific price level within a defined 30-day window. Comparable Polymarket WTI contracts from prior years show that extreme strikes (those beyond two standard deviations from consensus) routinely trade at 1–5% probability, making 0% a signal of either technical illiquidity or a price target genuinely considered impossible by active traders.

Traders monitoring this contract should track OPEC+ production decisions (the cartel meets quarterly), US inventory reports (released weekly by the EIA), and geopolitical developments in the Middle East and Russia. Seasonal demand patterns favour higher prices in Northern Hemisphere summer, though recession signals or dollar strength typically suppress crude valuations. The settlement mechanism uses Pyth's published 1-minute candle data without rounding, meaning execution must occur precisely at the strike price during an official trading session.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.