Tunisia vs. Japan

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Tunisia to beat Japan at **24% YES** on USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon, which puts the market firmly in underdog territory rather than a coin flip. With settlement running to 2026-06-21T04:00:00Z, the contract will resolve against the actual World Cup result rather than pre-match headlines, so traders are effectively buying or selling the chance that Tunisia finishes ahead on the day in Monterrey.

The historical frame leans against Tunisia. Japan have won three of the four recorded meetings between the sides, including a 2-0 friendly win in October 2023, while Tunisia’s lone victory in that run was a 3-0 friendly in June 2022; the earliest notable meeting was Japan’s 2-0 win at the 2002 World Cup. That sort of head-to-head record does not decide a one-off tournament game, but it helps explain why a sub-30% price is not far from how comparable past match-ups have been treated by the market and conventional odds, with ESPN listing Japan as the clear favourite and the draw as a live alternative.

For traders, the main catalysts are team news, starting line-ups, travel and rest constraints, and any late tournament context that changes incentives before kick-off. FIFA’s match centre is already flagging the fixture and related tournament content, while Goal’s preview notes Japan arrive in better recent form, with four wins and a draw from their last five matches, which can matter if late market flow leans on momentum rather than pure pedigree. On Polymarket, those updates feed directly into the price because participants are trading the probability of a verified result, not just the football narrative.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Tunisia vs. Japan on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.