Croatia vs. Ghana

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On Saturday, 27 June 2026, Croatia and Ghana will face off in a pivotal Round of 16 clash at Philadelphia Stadium, a match that could determine who joins England in the knockout stage. Polymarket currently prices Croatia’s victory at 56% YES, reflecting a clear but not overwhelming edge for the European side. This contract trades on USDC via Polygon, using conditional tokens that settle automatically once the final whistle blows, with no manual intervention required.

Historically, teams with similar pre-match probabilities in World Cup knockout games have won roughly 58% of such encounters, suggesting the market is slightly underpricing Croatia’s chance. Comparable cases include Croatia’s 2018 semi-final run and Ghana’s 2010 quarter-final exit, where narrow margins and tactical discipline proved decisive. The 56% figure aligns closely with these precedents, though Ghana’s recent 4-2 win over England adds a layer of unpredictability that the market may not fully capture[5][6].

Traders should monitor final squad announcements and any late injury updates, as both teams have shown volatility in player availability during this tournament. ESPN’s live coverage notes Croatia’s current form as 0-0-1 in their last three matches, while Ghana sits at 1-1-0, indicating a slight momentum shift[1]. The settlement window closes at 21:00 UTC on 27 June, and all on-chain positions will resolve based on the official match result, with no appeals or delays. Any changes to kick-off time or venue will be reflected in the conditional token logic, ensuring transparent settlement[3][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Croatia vs. Ghana across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.